When we look at Duke coming out of the ACC against Indiana coming out of the Big 10 it is important to look at each perspective conference, and when looking at these two they are pretty evenly matched. Big Ten has actually gone 11-15 vs. the ACC in bowl games, but the scoring differential is 0.3 points per game. The Big 10 went 4-3 vs. the ACC this year, but have a -3.9 ppg differential. For me I think these two teams are evenly matched with a slight edge to Duke, and I give their experience of being to their now 4th straight bowl game a huge advantage when you look at motivation.
Duke lost their 3 bowl games under Cutliffe, and this is a huge game, that they are actually able to win. They were even bigger dogs in the last 3 and really could have won all 3 games, but they didn't. Cutliffe has a special senior class and even states so. Duke's center Matt Skura says, "everyone's locked in," despite losing their OC Montgomery who is going to be coaching in this game, but will leave to be the HC of East Carolina. I trust Montgomery wants this game just as much after losing the last 3.
Duke's defense is far better than Indiana's, but they lose their best player in Cash at safety. That's a huge loss, but everything starts in the front 7 for this team that's ranked 38th vs. the run. Indiana will runt eh ball 56.5% of the time rely on Jordan Howard at RB, who is questionable. Duke has only allowed 200 yards rushing twice this year, but each team had to run the ball 50+ times to get there. Indiana is 1-4 when they don't run the ball 200+ yards. Duke can get the early lead here in my opinion and Indiana will have to score a lot to win this game.
Duke's offense is not that bad and since 2011 they have gone 7-4 with extra preparation scoring 30+ points in each of those games with 1 exception of a 24 points. They will face an Indiana defense ranked 103rd in yards per play and 121st in total defense. This is the worst defense that Duke has faced. Against teams ranked 88th or worse Duke has averaged 35.2 ppg so I think they will hang 40 up here today. The total play is not an option for me however since it moved 8.5 points to 72.5.
For Indiana under Kevin Wilson, an offensive guy and with extra time to prepare it doesn't look so good. He's 1-5 vs. FBS teams with extra rest, and this is their first bowl appearance. I just think the experience and coaching edge is on Duke's side along with the motivation, and the fact we are getting them at a decent size dog is pretty spectacular. Indiana put up a lot of points in their last 2 games against teams that really did not care and now they have to face one of the better defenses they have faced all year, a team that is less penalized, and has the 4th best special teams from an efficiency perspective. This game should be fun, but I think it's the experience that gets Duke the win in the end.
